Detailed explanation of the "ladder" system for Beijing small passenger car lottery: How does your waiting time turn into your probability of winning a license plate?

In Beijing, owning a personal vehicle license plate is often humorously described as "harder than winning the lottery". Faced with a massive applicant pool and limited road resources, Beijing's policy for regulating passenger car quotas has always strived for a balance between "equal opportunity" and "prioritizing rigid demand". The "tiered lottery system" is precisely a core mechanism designed to accommodate those "veteran players" who have been repeatedly unsuccessful in their attempts to obtain a license plate.

In simple terms, the "ladder" system assigns different "winning weights" based on the length and frequency of your participation in the lottery. The more times you participate in the lottery, the higher your "ladder" will be, the more times you will appear in the lottery pool, and the greater your chance of winning. This is not only the core rule for individual lottery participation, but also an important foundation for calculating family lottery points.

01

Individual lottery ladder: How to convert the number of attempts into a multiple?

Regarding individual ordinary passenger car quotas (i.e., fuel vehicle quotas), the calculation method for the number of tiers underwent an important adjustment. The current rules are mainly divided into two stages:

1. Early cumulative (before December 31, 2020): The number of lottery attempts before this point is calculated by adding 1 tier number for every 6 lottery attempts participated. For example, if the cumulative number of lottery attempts is 6 or less and no lottery is won, the tier number is 1 (baseline lottery win rate); if the number is between 7 and 12, the tier number is 2 (twice the lottery win rate); if between 13 and 18, the tier number is 3 (three times the lottery win rate), and so on.

2. Current cumulative system (since January 1, 2021): In order to further increase the winning rate for long-term participants, the policy has accelerated the frequency of tier increments. Each time you participate in the lottery twice, you can increase your tier count by one. This means that if you have been continuously participating in the lottery over the past few years, your tier count will increase faster.

It should be noted that the individual application for new energy passenger vehicle quotas currently primarily adopts a "waiting list" approach (based on the order of application time), and does not apply this tiered lottery rule.

Cumulative lottery draws Number of times the winning rate is multiplied (calculated based on a benchmark winning rate of 1 times)

Up to and including 24 times: 1 time (baseline)

25 - 36 times, doubled

37 - 48 times, 3 times

49 - 60 times, multiplied by 4

More than 60 times: 5 times

02

Family lottery ladder: From "individual multiples" to "family points"

Although the individual tier mechanism can increase the probability of winning a lottery, for families with immediate housing needs, family lottery is undoubtedly a more efficient path. In family lottery, an individual's "tier number" is converted into part of the "total family points".

The total family score consists of three parts:

1. Basic points: The main applicant gets 2 points, while other family applicants (spouse, children, parents, etc.) each get 1 point.

2. Tier (Waiting List) Points: For family applicants, each individual tier counts as 1 point; if they are currently waiting for a new energy quota, each full year counts as 1 point.

3. Weight coefficient: The final total score will be multiplied by a coefficient. If the spouse is included, the formula is [(main + spouse) × 2 + other members] × number of generations; if the spouse is not included, the formula is (main + other members) × number of generations. Here, "number of generations" refers to the number of generations of the family applicant, with a maximum of 3 generations (such as three generations, including grandparents and grandchildren).

To put it simply, the "ladder" effect of family lottery is cumulative and amplified. For a three-generation car-free family, by converting individual lottery years into points and multiplying them by the number of generations, the chance of winning can reach dozens or even hundreds of times that of an individual first-time applicant. This is the most direct manifestation of the "priority for rigid demand" principle.

03

Key points to note

1. Effective coding and interruption: The calculation of the ladder number is based on the effective existence period of the application code. If you withdraw from the lottery or your application is interrupted due to failure to pass the review, the previous lottery attempts may affect the continuous calculation of the ladder number after reapplication. Therefore, it is very important to maintain the validity of the application status.

2. Validity period of the quota: Whether you obtain the quota through individual lottery or family points, it is important to note that the validity period of the quota confirmation notice is only 12 months. If the vehicle registration is not processed within the time limit, the quota will become invalid, and the individual or family will face a two-year or even ten-year ban on application. If you do not intend to buy a car for the time being, do not be tempted to "apply for updating the quota", otherwise it will activate a 12-month countdown.

3. Track selection: Currently, Beijing adopts a "track-based" approach for allocating quotas. For regular quotas (fuel vehicles), a "lottery + tiered" mechanism is employed; family new energy quotas are ranked based on points; and individual new energy quotas are allocated on a waiting list according to the time of application. Applicants need to choose the most suitable track based on their own situation (whether they are a car-free family, have a long history of participating in the lottery, or prioritize the certainty of new energy vehicles).

The "ladder" mechanism for Beijing's small passenger car lottery is essentially a form of compensation for time cost. It acknowledges and respects applicants who have been participating and waiting patiently for a long time, and through a probability tilt, it makes the "long-term unsuccessful lottery" no longer a hopeless wait. At the same time, through the family points system, the individual "ladder" dividends are pooled towards the rigid demand groups based on families, achieving policy optimization from "equal opportunity" to "reasonable opportunity tilt".

If you are currently in the long queue for car license plate lottery, you may log in to the Beijing Small Passenger Car Quota Regulation and Management Information System to check your lottery attempts and tier number. Perhaps you will find that your distance from that "iron sheet" is getting closer and closer due to the accumulation of time.